
Dr Nageswaran's address covered the macroeconomic implications of the West Asia crisis, India's trade and competitiveness picture, and the strategic buffers the country needs to build. The current account deficit could widen from around 1% to above 2% of GDP, with lower remittances and higher commodity costs compressing the cushion.
On FDI, he argued India is "a victim of its own success," with easier entry-exit rules meaning investors repatriate freely and compress net FDI even as gross inflows remain healthy. On the geopolitical landscape, he identified three structural shifts that will outlast any political cycle: G2 consolidation between the US and China forcing middle powers to recalibrate; fracture in the Western alliance creating both risks and openings; and the middle-power squeeze requiring India to hedge and build flexible coalitions.
China Shock 2.0 is not cheap consumer goods, it is EVs, batteries, solar, and semiconductors, backed by export controls on 29 critical minerals
India's REER has corrected after years of overvaluation; UK FTA signed, EU deal expected by early 2027; total exports including services hit a record $825 billion in 2025
Private investment remains subdued because too much national income accrues to capital and too little to labour, keeping demand soft
QCOs ballooned from ~70 in 2016 to nearly 790 by 2025; now government has revoked over 60 selective deregulation easing inputs costs for downstream manufacturers and exporters.
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