
About the talk:
Dr Gupta summarised the MPC's record since FIT adoption in 2016 and the 2026 five-year review retained the 4% headline CPI target and +/- 2% band until March 2031
Three factors held the framework together through disruptions: anchored expectations, band flexibility to absorb supply shocks, and Centre's fiscal consolidation
State-level debt has roughly tripled over the past decade, flagged as the framework's most significant future stress test
MPC running two scenarios: $85/barrel base case and $95 for prolonged West Asia conflict
Remittances at ~$136 billion remain stable; Gulf share has fallen to 38% as US, UK, Singapore, and Canada now account for over half
Current easing cycle is noticeably more effective at the short and middle end of the yield curve than the two previous cycles
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